Wild Card Weekend DFS/Betting Guide
The NFL Playoffs are finally here! Wild Card Weekend is always one of the most entertaining weekends of football all year. As fans, more than half of our teams have already flushed their seasons away and a select 4 teams’ seasons are going so well they don’t even have to worry about this round. Then there’s the lucky 8 fan bases that get to stress over this weekend. No matter where your allegiances lie, there’s one thing that we can all do this weekend, and that makes some money. I’m going to go game by game for you guys, highlighting the best Daily Fantasy plays and the smartest bets to make. Let’s get this money!
Right off the bat, we get two division rivals. The best part about that is we already have two games they played this year, which should theoretically make our money making job that much easier. The two teams split their season series, with the road team winning close games each time. On the surface, both of these teams are eerily similar. Both have elusive QBs, preferred #1 WRs, and solid defenses. Just like their regular season meetings, this game is going to be close.
QB Andrew Luck $6,400 - Luck is the 2nd most expensive QB and it’s for good reason. In the games vs. Houston this season he’s averaging over 400 yards passing. He’s been the biggest reason that the Colts snuck into the final AFC Wild Card spot and I don’t expect him to slow down just yet.
WR T.Y. Hilton $7,800 - If you start Andrew Luck, you must start T.Y. There’s just no way around it. He’s Luck’s favorite target and the Texans haven’t had an answer for him this season. Hilton is averaging 157 yards against them in two games this year.
TE Eric Ebron $5,200 - I know, I know. I’m going Colts heavy and picking all of their expensive players. But, it makes sense. Ebron has been the biggest touchdown vulture of the season and I expect there to be plenty of points in this game.
WR KeKe Coutee $4,000 - Finally, I have a Texan. I know that you were expecting another Texan receiver here, but hear me out. DeAndre Hopkins is clearly the number one option in Houston, but this price is just too good to pass up. Especially with all of the injuries to Houston’s receiving corps, Coutee has proven that he’s a legitimate WR2.
IF THE PRICE FITS:
QB Deshaun Watson $6,700 - Watson is an amazing young QB, but he’s also the most expensive this weekend. The allure to him is what he can do with his legs. If he runs a couple in himself then he’ll be more than worth the price tag, but I think Luck is the better option for $300 less.
WR DeAndre Hopkins $8,700 - Look at that price tag. Is Hopkins the most talented receiver in the NFL? In my opinion, yes he is, but we’re trying to win a tournament here. That’s just too much.
ALL Running Backs - Marlon Mack and Lamar Miller are both very talented RBs, but these defenses haven’t been giving anything to running backs. In the previous two meetings, there hasn’t been one 50 yd rusher.
HOU Tight Ends - One of their 3 TEs will most likely catch a TD, but do you really want to task yourself with picking the right one? Yeah, didn’t think so.
BOTH Defenses - I don’t think either of these defenses will get you negative points, but I also think there are better options out there.
As I said, I think this is going to be a very close game, but in the end, I’m riding with Luck. My favorite bet in this one is Colts money line at +100, but I also like the OVER 48.5 (-115).
This is going to be old school NFC Ground n’ Pound Football. Both of these teams have mobile QBs and talented young runners. In another game of similarities, it’ll depend on which team can get their game plan going. These two teams met in Week 3 with Seattle winning 24-13, but that was before the Cowboys acquired Amari Cooper and turned things around.
RB Chris Carson $6,800 - Carson is becoming one of the best backs in the NFL and fits perfectly in Seattle’s offense. The Cowboys are a top-10 run defense, but I expect Seattle to get the ball moving on the ground anyways.
WR Tyler Lockett $5,300 - Lockett has been a vital piece of Seattle’s offense and has the speed to get behind the defense. Your tournament win is most likely going to come down to picking the right mid-tier receiver. Lockett just might be your winner.
WR Michael Gallup $3,600 - Seattle is 19th in the league against opposing WRs this season. While most of the defensive schemes will be focused on stopping Elliott and Cooper, Gallup could sneak through the cracks for a big day.
IF THE PRICE FITS:
RB Ezekiel Elliott $9,000 - We all know that Zeke is going to eat. The only question is he going to eat $9,000 worth? I think the money can be spent elsewhere, but if you find yourself with 9 Grand to blow, go for it.
QB Russell Wilson $5,700 - Wilson is a QB that seems to thrive in the postseason. I definitely think that there are a couple better options at QB, but there are also worse ones.
WR Doug Baldwin $6,200 - Baldwin could very well have a big game, but I just think the game plan is going to script the run more.
QB Dak Prescott $5,500 - Don’t do it. You know how Dallas QBs tend to fair in the playoffs. Just don’t do it.
WR Amari Cooper $7,500 - I could eat my words for saying this one, but I don’t like this match-up. Someone has to throw Cooper the ball and I just don’t believe in Dak.
The Ravens surprised everyone and beat the surging Chargers in Week 16. This Ravens team relies on the legs of QB, Lamar Jackson, who is going to become the youngest QB to ever start a playoff game. Many people commend the tenacity that Jackson is showing but doubt that his run-first style will sustain its success much longer. On the other side, the Chargers were one win away from winning the AFC West and are led by the fiery Philip Rivers, who is likely on his last leg as an NFL QB.
QB Lamar Jackson $5,800 - Jackson is so valuable in the fantasy sense because running yards and TDs count more than passing and that’s what he prefers.
RB Austin Ekeler $4,400 - If he plays, Ekeler should be effective. The Ravens have a good run defense, so I don’t really like Gordon in this game, but Ekeler can catch passes so well out of the backfield I think he’ll be alright.
WR Mike Williams $4,700 - Big Mike is becoming one of Rivers’ favorite targets, especially in the red zone. When utilized correctly, the Clemson alum is a downright monster.
D/ST Ravens $3,000 - All it takes is one mistake to make a D/ST worth it. Rivers loves to throw at least one pick a game so the Ravens will pay for themselves easily.
IF THE PRICE FITS:
WR Keenan Allen $6,900 - Allen is a little pricey, especially going up against a stout Ravens secondary, but big-time players ball out in big-time games.
RB Kenneth Dixon $4,000 - Dixon had a nice outing in Week 17 and does the two things that Edwards doesn’t, catch balls and score TDs.
RB Gus Edwards $4,200 - I actually really like Gus Edwards, but he has two fatal flaws. One, he doesn’t catch balls out of the backfield and two, he doesn’t score TDs.
ALL Ravens WRs - Lamar Jackson can’t be trusted to get the Ravens WRs the ball. Maybe next year, but not in this game.
Lamar Jackson has been one of the pleasant surprises of this NFL season, but I don’t see him fooling the Chargers twice. Philip Rivers’ fairytale season continues. Favorite bet: Chargers money line +120.
Sunday 4:40 PM
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Nick Foles playing football in January. It just feels right. The improbable Eagles are getting hot at the right time once again, but they’ll face their toughest competitor so far in Chicago. This defense has been lights out since the acquisition of Khalil Mack at the start of the season. The only question is if their young QB, Mitchell Trubisky can lead them to a playoff victory.
RB Jordan Howard $4,600 - Howard has finally once again become the running back that he’s been the past few seasons. I think the Bears will try and stick to the run at home to start the game at least.
WR Nelson Agholor $3,800 - Agholor has been gelling with Foles these last few weeks. At this price, he’s hard to pass up.
Eagles D/ST $2,200 - I actually like both D/ST’s in this game, but this price tag could save you some money to get a better receiver somewhere else.
Bears D/ST $3,400 - The Bears have arguably the best Defense in the league. Even if they lose this game, Khalil Mack is sure to put some pressure on Foles.
IF THE PRICE FITS:
RB Tarik Cohen $5,400 - Cohen is a little pricey for me here, but he’s a very dynamic back. One move and he’s gone so I could see him getting that chance.
WR Alshon Jeffery $5,900 - Jeffery is a really good receiver, but it’s going to be hard getting open against the Bears secondary. If you want an Eagle receiver, I like the cheaper Agholor better.
TE Zach Ertz $6,400 - It all comes down to how much you want to spend on your TE.
QB Mitchell Trubisky $6,200 - Trubisky has certainly shown progress this season, but I think they’ll try and keep on the ground at home.
ALL Eagles RBs - The Bears have the number 1 run defense in the league. Don’t do it.
ALL Bears Receivers - See Mitchell Trubisky.
Eagles 24 - 23 Bears
This game comes down to the final play. Chicago’s defense versus the myth of Big Dick Nick. Foles leads the Eagles to yet another improbable victory. Favorite bet: Eagles spread +6.5 (-110).